It allowed gamblers to increase the size of their winnings over a long period of time. The 20/1 21. Unsurprisingly, the volatility or variance in the evolution of the bankroll is greatest for full-Kelly and least for eighth-Kelly. Knappers Hill (Paul Nicholls/Harry Cobden) Unbeaten in bumpers, including a Grade 2, and stretched unbeaten record to 5 with novice hurdle wins in. Brechin Castle (Ire) B. Enter the odds, which represent the potential payout for winning the bet. 25 =25%. evident from looking at the Kelly Criterion graph. Defining what race reading is. He's a BIG player in the financial markets and I'm sure he moves that kind of money all the time. A race involves M horses, and is described by a normalized vector of winning probabilities p, an inverse-odds vector r and a gambler strategy b. Abstract and Figures. Horse Racing Tips: Moon to shine at Exeter in Monday 18/1 double ; More Horse Racing Tips. We’ve along with set up a. Kelly, Jr in 1956. In his book Commonsense Betting, which is arguably the finest book written on the betting and the mathematics of horse-racing, US author Dick Mitchell wrote about various staking plans. Blackbow was ultimately only fifth in a two-mile-five-furlong handicap chase at the Dublin Racing Festival, but he looked set to make a much bigger impact for most of. It was first repurposed as a formula to identify an optimal betting system in horse racing. Without this component, it is still possible to lose huge sums of money no matter how much research a bettor does. The Real KC is very useful for outright betting as shown. Make the most of horse racing. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick;. For any queries relating to. Horse Racing Tips: Tommie can be our rock in Sunday 9/1 Fontwell multiple ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Rachael Blackmore: Ain't That A Shame can go well in Troytown Handicap Chase; Horse. 00 – 1) p = 0. I should warn an edge like that would require some serious inside info. The most popular methodology for determining the optimal wager size is the Kelly Criterion. Example of the Kelly Criterion: Let’s say you have analyzed a game and determined that the underdogs have a 40% chance of winning, and their odds are +200 (3. If you are going to place for example 100$ on these two games, you should use 4/6 = 66,7 % = £67 on game 1 and 2/6 = 33,3% = £33 on game 2. Patrick Weaver says: "Willie Mullins' Vauban is favourite 3. 48 B = 2-1 = 1. It’s ultimately designed to maximize profits and returns across sports betting and is becoming a staple for many when betting on soccer, NFL, and horse racing. 55)-0. This shows that according to the Kelly Criterion formula, you should stake 25% of the amounts you have set for betting. John Kelly developed his formula whilst working at AT&T’s Bell Laboratory when attempting to solve their long-distance signal noise issues. 00 The 2m handicap at 14:25 is much more up my usual betting strasse, and I thought it would be, once again. Today’s Betting Tips. Mixed Martial Arts Tips. The Kelly Criterion was first published in 1956 by John L. 00 x 0. If you bet more than 10%, you’re taking on too much risk. If a fully Kelly stake was 8%, then the half-, quarter- and eighth-Kelly stakes would be 4%, 2% and 1% respectively. His original formulas dealt with long-distance telephone transmission signal to noise ratios. Here at Betting. Without the right knowledge and strategy on how much to wager on a particular event, you could easily plunge yourself into a pit of losses. 89% of my bankroll on any race (still using the Pace of Horse factor). scientific gambling method ), is an effective strategy in every sense of the word. The Kelly Criterion – also known as the Kelly Strategy or Kelly Staking Plan – takes elements from fixed, percentage and progressive staking to create somewhat of a hybrid staking plan. xh is the amount we will wager on horse h, Oh is the decimal payout odds for horse h, which we assume are fixed, and w is our current wealth. 0) than a 5% edge at 1/3 (1. 20 or 20% of their bankroll. Wednesday - Windsor Castle: Back Barnwell Boy. This is Kellys Equation. It was developed in 1956 by John Larry Kelly Jr. The formula was derived by J. Kelly Criterion recommend risking 6% of your. We define the problem setting, the formal investment strategies, and review their common modifications used in practice. We define the problem setting, the formal investment. 35 = 0. Most only know a simplified version. NAP. Criterion has raced at Ascot-GB, Caulfield-AUS, Randwick-AUS, Flemington-AUS, Moonee Valley. Murray Bridge Racecourse. 82pts. F. 2 or 20%. K. For any other Betfair-related queries, head to customer support. RaceQuant enlisted our team to use machine learning to more accurately predict the outcome of horse races, to advise betting. Editor. This is how the simplified Kelly looks. You just can't bet at that level. Following the Kelly criterion, the process of betting is closely connected to information theory (K elly Jr, 1956). Kelly criterion as part of a horse racing system article any horse racing system must have a money management component built in this is of paramount importance without this component it is still possible to lose huge sums of money no matter how much research a punter does. 00. It is great for horse racing fans, as you. Subsequent to being distributed in 1956, the Kelly criterion was gotten rapidly by players who had the option to apply the formula to horse racing. Downloadable (with restrictions)! This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. 2$ and his odds are $1$ so you. 50), and our new target bankroll is $1562. Kelly Criterion Calculator Excel. The first of these is the probability of a positive outcome, or a winning trade. . 2) From another angle. 16) of our free Excel betting. In Section 2 we define the concept of a betting strategy. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;Horse Racing Tips: Lou to give us a gift in Thursday 13/1 Newcastle double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Take a chance on 20/1 Zhiguli at Ascot this Saturday. The best staking plan debate. Here are five tips to help you use the Kelly sports betting strategy more effectively. Spanish LaLiga. The calculator will tell you whether or not you should be betting and how much to stake. By using the Kelly Criterion, you can maximize your profits while minimizing your risk of ruin. Get a completely free horse racing multiple bet and horse racing tips from Tony Calvin and more plus expert insight from Paul Nicholls and Ryan Moore. We are giving you two options on how to use the Kelly Criterion Calculator. k. xh is the amount we will wager on horse h, Oh is the decimal payout odds for horse h, which we assume are fixed, and w is our current wealth. 20 or 20%. Kelly Jr. Racing. 0= 1. What is the Kelly Criterion formula? The basic Kelly Criterion formula is: (bp-q)/b. 35 * 0. We’ve developed a Kelly Criterion formula Excel spreadsheet that you can download here. at Bell Labs, is an optimal sizing of bets, given an initial pool of wealth, to maximize the doubling rate of wealth in a repeated bets scenario. Kelly Criterion's model is based on a mathematical formula developed by this author in the mid-1950s. where f is the fraction of the bank to stake; b is the odds for the bet (“b to 1”); p is the probability of winning; q is the probability of losi…How does the Kelly criterion calculator work? By entering your bankroll, the odds and your estimated probability of winning, the Kelly Criterion calculator will tell you how much. Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Handicapper's Corner: Kelly CriterionThe Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that can be used to determine the optimal amount of money to bet on an event based on the bettor’s perceived edge or advantage. forms of gambling, including sports betting. Red Mile VP Sees Sports Betting as Boost for Kentucky Horse Racing. But on those occasions when you lose, you will lose your stake of $57. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, we can calculate the optimal fraction of your bankroll to bet as: f* = ( (2. It's most useful to determine the size of a position you should take. She. It’s ultimately designed to maximize profits and returns across sports betting and is becoming a staple for many when betting on soccer, NFL, and horse racing. 5pt EW) settled at BSP: +5. The Kelly Criterion Model is a fascinating model that takes little knowledge of sports to be successful if executed properly. Try out the Kelly Criterion Calculator below, but pay careful attention to heavy favorites (i. The formula has a number of applications, one of which is sports betting. Kelly criterion as part of a horse racing system article any horse racing system must have a money management component built in this is of paramount importance without this component it is still possible to lose huge sums of money. Racing Results & Replays. The second is the total win loss ratio, which is made up of the total number of winning trades divided by the total number of losing trades. The question arises because it is widely believed that the Kelly criterion is best for betting online, while, in fact, its use is appropriate only if our betting system has been actually proved profitable. 50 (or 5/2 with an implied probability of 28. A. Second, notice that betting just a tiny bit more than the Kelly criterion suggests leads to decreased profits with higher risk . In addition, betting with the Kelly Criterion may occasionally be worse than constant betting even after several thousand bets. Horse Racing Tips: Moon to shine at Exeter in Monday 18/1 double ;. Estimation: 0,25 (25 %) ( (5,00 x 0,25) - 1) / (5,00-1) = 0,0625. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, the bettor would calculate the optimal bet size as follows: f = (0. Euro 2024. 16 August 2023. The true probability may lie between 40% and 60%, or even 20% and 80%. a. a betting fund) over the long term by determining the optimal stake on a. The Kelly criterion was used by horse racing gamblers in the late 1950s. , -200 odds and shorter) because the Kelly Calculator struggles with “sure things. Kelly Criterion mathematical equation takes into account your bankroll, your own calculated winning probability of the outcome you are betting on, and the odds available from the bookmaker. Let us say that your horse (Let us call him Lucky Punter) gets 4/1 odds (or 5. Aidan O'Brien's unbeaten River Tiber 9/43. Kelly. The sum of positive trade amounts divided by the sum of negative trade amounts. There are n horses in the race, and the probability of horse h winning is πh. Kelly Criterion User Name: Remember Me? Password: Google Site Search: Get RDSS: Sartin Library: RDSS FAQs: Conduct: Register: Site FAQ: Members List: Today's Posts: Search: General Discussion General Horse Racing DiscussionRespected under a 4 lb penalty. This post is Part 2 of a series on the Kelly criterion and its application to sports betting. e. The median rating is 149mean is 149. b = the decimal odds – 1. In sports betting, this formula is used to decide the optimal amount of money to place in a bet. 1. 2 days ago · Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday. It was developed in 1956 by John Larry Kelly Jr. 00 – 1) f* =0. TBM incorporates Race Card data for UK/IRE Horse Racing and UK Greyhound Racing. BTW, Thorpe, started the counting craze in BJ. Monks Dream (Ire) Tim Easterby. In another example, you may have a perceived edge of 55% (0. Kelly Criterion And Asset Management. 8. com. 0 (100%), but if you do not want to wager the full. Bell and Cover (1988), discuss a game-theoretical optimality of Kelly portfolios. Its discoverer was John Larry Kelly, Jr . Eat healthy. The Kelly Criterion also works for horse race betting. Timeform's Tony McFadden highlights a Nap, Next Best and Each Way selection at the Curragh on Sunday. I wouldn't like to be laying Hamish at 100/1 101. Australia Sports Betting has developed a free staking plan Excel spreadsheet which doubles as a betting tracker. Completely Free Football Bet: Editor best bets including 18/1 Acca and 26/1 Bet Builder. It was only after later that the formula was applied to investing. ITV Races - Tony Calvin. PointsBet, an Australian-based sportsbook with a significant market share in the US, launched the PointsBet Horse Racing app ahead of the 2023 Triple Crown series. The most common form of value betting calculator. Subsequent to being distributed in 1956, the Kelly criterion was gotten rapidly by players who had the option to apply the formula to horse racing. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Gordon set for winners in Fontwell Saturday 8/1 double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 22/1 Bird. 00. T&Cs apply. So if the chance of winning on a single bet is 80%, the bettor should wager 60% of one’s bankroll. To avoid complicated. You need to input the probability (according to your own assessment) that your selection will win. Kelly Criterion in detail Introduction; Big-O and little-o; Average Rate of Return;. 1 day ago · Featured Horse Racing. The two-year-old races at Royal Ascot are always a source of great excitement and expectation amongst both the racing and bloodstock fraternities. If I apply the Kelly Criterion based upon the historical odds of that factor 7/2, instead of true post odds, is that a valid way of applying Kelly? Furthermore, I created an Excel Spreadsheet to analyze my results, and based upon my Kelly formula, it says that I can bet 9. The Kelly Criterion is a famous formula developed by its name-sake John Kelly Jr and is used by many a handicapper and blackjack player. Racing. Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets including 5/1 scorer tip and 5/1 Bet Builder at Stamford Bridge. For any queries relating to. Introduction In the seminal paper [5], Kelly considered repeated betting on horse races. Already the winner of 17 races - including the Stewards' Cup in 2020 and the Group 3 Abernant Stakes in 2021 - Summerghand lines up here under a 5 lb penalty for his York effort and seems sure to. Blackbow - 14:00 Naas. Kelly’s Criterion also assumes that you can start again if your entire bankroll is lost . to identify how to maximize the long-term growth rate of investments and has since been used successfully. The Kelly criterion is a money-management formula of passionate interest (and controversy) to card players, sports bettors, investors, hedge fund managers, and economists. 00. The first step in using. It can therefore be applied equally well in American football, soccer and horse racing markets, to name just three. 1. e. The Kelly Criterion is a strategy that can be used in several. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race; How to use Timeform Ratings;Get a Free £10 Bet - Every Day! From January 7-13, we are Doubling our Daily Rewards! Stake £20 on Multiples or Bet Builders over the course of a day, and, after the bets have settled, you'll. Now, if we return to the figures we already provided, the equation will look like this: ( (2 x 0. Simply input your betting bankroll, the odds on offer, your. while reducing volatility. The Kelly Criterion is a method of analyzing your odds and assigning a number to those odds. Andrew Asquith. In sports betting, the Kelly Criterion can be used. at Bell Labs, is a strategy for the optimal sizing of bets in the repeated bets scenario in his seminal paper¹. How to use the Kelly Criterion calculator. A ‘gambler with a private wire’ gets advanced word of the outcome of baseball games. This has been applied to various games, including horse racing. Register: Site FAQ: Members List: Today's Posts: Search: General Discussion General Horse Racing Discussion. Race 2 21:38 Hawthorne - Satiate. 60 to get 0. Kelly betting or proportional betting is an application of information theory to investing and gambling. Of course, the bracket has to be reduced in this year's race because of a lack of strength and depth. How to Use the Kelly Criterion Calculator. The objective is to maximize the Kelly criterion, which is equivalent to maximizing the ex-pected logarithm of wealth. It helps tells us the odds or likelihood of each outcome and helps us determine what size bet to place on each outcome. In an example in which you think a horse should be 6 to 4 (40% chance of winning) and its odds are 5/2 (or 2. This means that the bettor should wager 20% of their bankroll on Liverpool to win. Are you open to new opportunity?- 15:00: No bet. It's free to sign up and bid on jobs. For any queries relating to Betting. 60 x 1. provide sports betting tips, news and analysis for Australian punters. The formula compares that probability with the odds available, and adjusts the stake accordingly for maximum profitability. Previously he had competed in a couple of good races at York and his trainer Geoff Oldroyd. 4 feet, with elite performers such as Frankel, Sea The Stars and. As much as anything, it is the prospect of Quickthorn getting the lead to himself that is just as attractive as the drop in class that the race represents. 2) From another angle. The ultimate value betting calculator. Horse Racing Tips: One drifter and a chaser to back for 48/1 Monday double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Paul Nicholls' Ditcheat Diary: Daryl Jacob to ride Bravemansgame in Saturday's. Euro 2024 Qualifier Tips: Seven of the best bets from Saturday's matches. Two main concepts in wagering, Kelly criterion and hedging, will be discussed in Chapters 7 and 8. The Kelly Criterion only works if one has an advantage over the game they are playing. In horse racing, this is based on the player's own handicapping of the race. Kelly criterion staking approach aims to maximize your winning and protect your capital in losing runs. Italian Serie A. That is the heart of any. The Kelly Criterion. " 15:45. 8. You can find these same numbers in the image above, and the Kelly Criterion Formula expresses it as follows: (0. Kelly described. Timeform Radio Tips on Betfair. ) Of course, this begs the question: Why use the Kelly Criterion at all?Kelly Criterion Calculator. Tony McFadden. 5 Ways to Grow Your Bankroll in 2019! By Ray Wallin. If the downside-case loss is less than 100%, as in the scenario above, a different Kelly formula is required: Kelly % = W/A – (1 – W)/B , where W is the win probability, B is the profit in the event of a win (20%), and A is the potential loss. 00 x 0. This value should be a number between 0 and 100. Golf. 75 in addition to your stake of $57. For sports bettors, the Kelly Criterion sports betting strategy is capable of maximizing potential profit, while minimizing both volatility and threat. Kevin Blake is a horse racing pundit who works with ITV Racing, Sky Sports Racing and At The Races, as well as writing his regular Betting. Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage. The Kelly Criterion is a formula to determine the proper size of a bet with known odds and a definite payout. Rugby Union Tips. Rugby World Cup Final. Monks Dream started at 150/1 and never figured on his debut in a big-field novice event at York on his debut in October, but he attracted. Finally, in x7 we give some numerical examples to illustrate the methods. Let us recall the basic elements of Kelly's horse race model []. 5 Tips for Using the Kelly Criterion in Sports Betting. Kelly criterion can generate an optimal bidding fraction (MacLean et al. The Kelly Criterion (a. The Kelly Criterion can be a great tool in the pocket of all sports bettors. 00 – 1) f* =0. In relation to sports betting, it’s. Whenever the question of optimal betting size pops up in handicapping or money management books, you usually see Kelly. It can also be a. If there is a fixed amount of bets the Kelly criterion will be suboptimal, but as the number of bets grows the optimal strategy will asymptotically reach the Kelly criterion. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. Calculate Bet The formula is as follows: WINNING RATE - LOSING RATE / AVG. Before addressing your investment strategy, learn about the Kelly criterion and see if it’s a fit for you. How to Use the Kelly Criterion Calculator. Red Mile VP Sees Sports Betting as Boost for Kentucky Horse Racing. The Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula relating to the long-term growth of capital developed by John L. Minnis. Timeform's Andrew Asquith highlights a Nap, Next Best and Each-Way selection at Beverley on Thursday. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: 4/1 Fry up some Ree Okka on Monday;. Timeform best bets. The Kelly criterion was used by horse racing gamblers in the late 1950s. 1 of the amount they have set aside for gambling purposes. There are. 0= 1. Multiples 2021 to present: +20. Featured Football. This type of situation is common in horse racing, where. You think the horse has 50% of winning. New show alert. Kelly Jr. s = b * (o / f. g. Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage. Next, you take 0. Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin says back 10/1 pair in Aintree's Grand Sefton;. . Premier. Brechin Castle cost £165,000 after winning his point in impressive fashion and he created an excellent. 6 hours ago · He won over 7f from a mark of 73, but looked ahead of that mark with a dead straightforward performance. 2. Betfair is where you can get the best horse racing tips for meetings in the UK, Ireland and. We develop a general framework to apply the Kelly criterion to the stock market data, and consequently, to portfolio optimization. The Kelly criterion is a useful tool for making informed decisions about how to allocate capital when betting on horse races, particularly when considering a single type of bet (Benter 1994) -most. L. While this was formulated around table games, it is a concept that can be. WITH KELLY. The Kelly Criterion sprung from the work of John Kelly at AT&T's Bell Labs in 1956. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. The formula is as follows: f = the fraction of the bankroll to bet. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race; How to use Timeform Ratings;Football. This project is a fork (offshoot) of the standard version (v2. The Kelly criterion is one model of investment money management, but it’s not the only one. If 3 bets were made every week, it would takeThe calculator has 3 modes which you can use to do this. ) Of course, this begs the question: Why use the Kelly Criterion at all?The Kelly criterion, developed by John L. 73 feet. Correspondence Address: Triq il-Kappillan Mifsud, St. In as vivid a display of a horse seizing defeat from the jaws of victory as one will ever see, Harper's Brook pulled himself up in front, slowing right down and allowing Gloire D'athon to beat him. The most popular methodology for determining the optimal wager size is the Kelly Criterion. Completely Free Football Bet: Editor best bets including 18/1 Acca and 26/1 Bet Builder. Of course, the Kelly has also been adapted for other "bets," including blackjack. Load more library articles. Tony Calvin has been in the racing and tipping business for over 25 years, encompassing a 12-year stint at the Racing Post and an 11-year spell as Head Of Media at Betfair. Today, Warren Buffet and others use it for investing purposes. Betfair's star racing tipster Tony Calvin brings a full guide to Saturday's racing on ITV with four bets at prices from 6/1 to 20/1 at Newmarket, York and Ascot. Published in 1956, the Kelly Criterion was quickly adopted by gamblers for use in horse racing. resource for various forms of investing too, as its primary. Duhallow Tommy showed a fairly useful level of form in bumpers last season, opening his account in that sphere at the third attempt at Fontwell in January, and he. The standard kelly betting is 1. It can also be a. What the Kelly Criterion does is help you decide the perfect level of stake by. The Kelly criterion was used by horse racing gamblers in the late 1950s. This is important, since in the latter case. Suppose you are betting on a horse race event at the Cheltenham Hurdle, and the odds offered for your horse in a race is 5. For customers in the UK, TSE Malta LP is licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039561-R-319411-005. More. while working at AT&T's Bell Laboratories. 25 so an edge of 25% divided by 1. e. One of the easiest mistakes to make. 70 2pt win Both Point Given and Classy Boy - 7/4 2. So if your getting 6/4 on an 1/1 shot your edge is 2. For example, consider you are betting on a coin to land on heads at 2. In Chapter 6, we will talk about some methods in misconceptions in estimating placed probability. These two factors are then input into the Kelly Criterion equation. many horses; he assumed the track take to be zero. K. Published in 1956, the Kelly Criterion was quickly adopted by gamblers for use in horse racing. Featured Horse Racing. Serial Winners. Note that if the formula is absolutely strictly applied, one would literally never make an. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. Football. Regarding traditional betting against bookmakers, on sports and horse racing, there is a lot of mythology and not much hard data on long-term success of professional gamblers. widespread, is the Kelly criterion (Kelly Jr, 1956), also known as the geometric mean policy, maximizing the expected long-term growth of wealth. Venera, SVR 1851, MALTA. 00 in decimal odds). 00 – 1) f* =0. * f* is the fraction of the current bankroll to wager; * b is the odds received on the wager; * p is the probability of winning; * q is the probability of losing, which is 1 − p. German Bundesliga. Rugby World Cup Quick Hits: England to finish on high with Argentina win. Unsurprisingly, the volatility or variance in the evolution of the bankroll is greatest for full-Kelly and least for eighth-Kelly. Recent. Kelly Criterion was developed in 1956 by John L. Betfair, e-mail Copy@betfair. 40) / 1 = 0. to identify how to maximize the long-term growth rate of investments and has since been used successfully. Venera, SVR 1851, MALTA. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. Kelly published his findings in a paper "A new interpretation of the information. Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Off Topic > Off Topic - General: Kelly Criterion QuestionThe Kelly Criterion Model is a fascinating model that takes little knowledge of sports to be successful if executed properly. input 0. Rugby World Cup Final. He was trained by David Hayes and Tom Dabernig and raced for Sir Owen G. Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Handicapper's Corner: Kelly CriterionIn horse racing, this is based on the player’s own handicapping of the race. You are a corrupt telegraph operator, providing a ‘private wire’ service that transmits messages reporting horse racing results to anyone who can afford to pay you. Jun 16, 2023 By Rebecca Martin Multiple strategies in the sports betting world claim to help bettors maximize their profits and manage their banks effectively. 1 – 1. 05 2/1 coming off second best to Pied Piper 4. Completely Free Football Bet: Editor best bets including 18/1 Acca and 26/1 Bet Builder. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: 9/4 Springwell Bay looks thrown in off 137 at Cheltenham Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Paddy Power Gold Cup can go to a closerFeatured Rugby. 52 = 0. Total Performance Data have recorded his max stride at 26. Kelly Criterion. For customers in the UK, TSE Malta LP is licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039561-R-319411-005. Don said picking a trifecta winning bet was a test of skill rather than a game of chance. 5 if you want to wager 50% of the stake recommended by the Kelly. Kelly Criterion.